Should Joe Mauer be moved from behind home plate? E-mail
Written by MC3 Sports Media   
Monday, 08 March 2010 08:17

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Today's Debaters are:

Slanch, The Slanch Report

Bill Parker, The Daily Something

Today's Topic is: Should Joe Mauer be moved from behind home plate?

mauermachineJoe Mauer SHOULD be moved from behind home plate

By SlanchThe Slanch ReportPresenting the best in off-beat sports news, mainstream sports idiocy, the choicest Doppelgangers and always plenty of baseball. Oh and hot chicks, lots of hot chicks.

There is no doubt that Joe Mauer is the best catcher in the American League, but his highest value, the reason the Minnesota Twins want to make a long-term commitment to him, is for his ability at the plate, not behind it.

In the five full years he's spent in the majors, Mauer has missed a total of 146 games. As the team looks to invest in Mauer for the next decade they want to ensure they get the most out of him. At his current pace, missing one out of every 5 seasons is not a great start. Looking forward, as Mauer gets older he isn't likely to become MORE durable, particularly in such a taxing position like catcher. That's not to suggest that Mauer is a bad catcher, he is in fact a better than average catcher. The two Gold Gloves he's won in successive years are a bit deceiving though, they've been gained more thanks to his bat than his glove-work.

Last season Mauer experienced his long-awaited power breakout, he also missed the first month of the season and only tallied 109 games behind the plate, DHing another 28 games -- a career high. How are the Twins best served by having their best player missing an AVERAGE of 30 games a season? That's nearly 120 potential ABs that they are needlessly losing out on.

Having an excellent hitting catcher is an awesome luxury, having a young hitting machine is an even greater one.

In 1992, after 3 years of 100+ games played at catcher in the majors, Craig Biggio switched full-time to playing second base. Already having won a Silver Slugger and been an All Star as a catcher, Biggio made the switch. Over the next 8 seasons he averaged 152 games a season (8 games more) and an OPS+ of 130; that's really really good. Craig Biggio was one of the very good players in the league during his day. Mauer is one of the very best, certainly markedly better than Biggio, one whose talent and ability puts him in the rare stratosphere of one-name superstars, along with the likes of Albert, Hanley and Endy.

Just kidding -- making sure you're paying attention.

joemauerNot about Mauer's skills though, he has the chance to produce Ichiro-like numbers with legit power too. That kind of potential can't be lost because he was hurt playing in the field. Switching Mauer to a less physically taxing position will allow him a minimum of 10 more games per season but even more importantly, less strenuous games. Instead of coming to the plate with his legs throbbing from thousands of squats and his hands stinging from a foul tip in the last frame, Mauer will be able to concentrate just on his at-bat and that can only help him concentrate more and hit better.

Then where does he move? First base is occupied through 2013 by Justin Morneau, and he's not about to move anywhere, so that's out. However, currently, the Twins are entering the season with Brendan Harris as their third baseman. Over the last three seasons Harris has played about 130 games, and put up OPS+ of 106, 94 and last year, 77. Essentially, his numbers equate to the average catcher in the AL.

With the way the Twins are set up now, Mauer replaces a normal productive third baseman's numbers and Harris plays the role of a "catcher" while manning third. If you're willing to make that concession already, as an organization, why not take the next step, let Mauer play third and reap the side benefits from him not having to get beat up day in and day out by such a brutal position. With less wear and tear on the body, it only stands to reason that Mauer will see an increase in his numbers at the plate.

A legit quarterback prospect -- he turned down Florida State for baseball -- Mauer is considered such a freak of athletic ability according to his teammates that he's become a verb. When told about how Mauer had recently bowled an effortless 265, Nick Punto told reporters, "That's so Mauer of him to do something like that." Presumably, after catching, the hot corner won't bother Mauer too much.

Of course, that's just assuming Mauer takes to the position, which even for a top athlete is difficult on the fly. Say he doesn't, that's fine, there's always left field, an even less taxing position that any reasonable athlete can manage. Mauer's bat is so good that so long as he isn't Ryan Braun-bad at third, his offensive numbers should outweigh any defensive inadequacies.

The smartest solution for the Twins is to have the MVP make the position switch official next season, allowing him an off season to start working on and preparing for a position change. Freed up from the pressures of catching, physically and mentally, Mauer should build on his already impressive numbers.

Staying at catcher will only lead to more injuries and longer stints on the disabled list as he ages. Catchers are like running backs, their peak shelf life isn't very long. For the Twins to make a gigantic investment in their star, they need to make sure that he is able to actually be on the field. The knee issues he's had don't just clear up and go away, they linger, they develop, they continue to cause havok; 6' 5" men aren't intended to play catcher. All that bending and crouching adds up and will directly lead to missed games and games where Mauer isn't close to his best shape. That's the toll of playing catcher.

Entering his age 27 season, where most hitters see their peak, the Twins want to have Joe on the field and in the batter's box as much as possible. Mauer's talent isn't just good, he's one of the top 3 position players in the game. No matter where he plays he's going to be far above average. Having a stud catcher is more than nice but keeping him on the field is far more valuable. With a position change, Mauer can prolong his career by a number of years and the team can see more games played per season -- everyone wins in that scenario.

mauerplate2Another factor to consider is that the Twins are moving to an out-door stadium this season, 81 games in beautiful downtown Minneapolis. April, May, September, October, those months are going to be absolutely brutal to the players on the field. Exposing Mauer to those kinds of elements, and asking him to play the most physical position on the field is just foolish. Let him play in the field as the pitcher's assistant or the short center fielder if need be, so long as he gets to hit.

There's a reason there hasn't been a catcher like Mauer before, players like him, with a precocious hitting ability like his, get taken off catcher long ago in the minors. Their bats are their tickets to the majors and franchises recognize that is much more valuable and durable not playing catcher.

After he switched positions, Biggio logged 2606 hits in 16 seasons, wouldn't you like to see Mauer do better than that. If he continues as a catcher, Mauer will finish his career with great numbers for a catcher, but there will always be that caveat. His numbers won't compare with other hitters because his career will be marred with time lost from injury, it's just a fact of playing catcher, your body breaks down. Too many foul balls off the mask, stumbles into dugouts chasing a pop out, collisions at home and of course, the catching a big league staffs worth of fastballs lead to the DL, it's unavoidable no matter how finely conditioned the athlete. For one who has already had injuries in the most vulnerable place for a catcher, it just gets worse.

Moving Mauer means many more Minnesota summers where he can lead the league in hitting and add to his Hall of Fame resume. Leaving him at catcher means his potential will never truly be reached, too many games will be lost to the position. Right now the Twins have a Ferrari throttling out of control in a pickup truck's position, let the performance car out in the open and let loose the beast.

Free Joe. Let him fly free. - SlanchThe Slanch Report

mauercatch1Joe Mauer SHOULD NOT be moved from behind Home plate

By Bill ParkerThe Daily SomethingThe Daily Something is a general baseball blog (with a strong pro-Twins slant) that provides just that: something about baseball every day, or at least every weekday. It gets pretty heavily into the analytical and statistical side of the game, but the site also features plenty of commentary and analysis on the current season (or offseason), glimpses into baseball history, and miscellaneous nonsense.

You hear it a lot: Joe Mauer is too valuable to be kept behind the plate. His bat is just too good. You need him in the lineup every day.

Bad idea. Some day, maybe. Just not now, and very likely not anytime soon.

The reason that would be such a phenomenally terrible idea, or the biggest reason, is that Joe Mauer is so valuable in large part because he plays behind the plate. Moving him now might preserve his value in some sense, but there's no question that it would also destroy a big chunk of that value.

Let us count the ways...

mauerthrowA Good Catcher Is Hard to Find

One of the least understood aspects of baseball among most fans today, I think, is positional value. People generally acknowledge that a catcher or shortstop who can hit is more impressive than a first baseman who can hit; they just don't seem to understand how much of a difference the player's position makes (see, e.g., the 2006 AL MVP award).

Well, it's huge. In 2009, the average American League catcher hit .254/.316/.408. That's the worst OPS of any position except shortstop (it's five points ahead of SS); the batting average is 11 points lower and the OBP is 13 lower than any other position. NL catchers didn't have the benefit of Mauer himself, so they hit .255/.325/.385, the worst position in the league in all three categories.

A great hitter who can catch is a very, very valuable thing. Much more valuable than, say, a first baseman, where the average hitter in the 2009 AL hit .271/.351/.481. If you've got a great hitter who can play catcher, it's pretty easy to find a first baseman who can hit. If you put that great hitter at first base, it's a lot harder to then go out and find a catcher who can hit.

One way to understand this is through Tom Tango's position adjustments, one component of Wins Above Replacement. Under that system, each position is worth a certain number of runs per season, to reflect the difficulty of playing that position (as it relates to the difficulty of finding an adequate replacement at that position compared to others).

A player who catches for an entire season gets +12.5 runs under that system; a first baseman loses 12.5. Just by moving a guy from catcher to first base, without regard to how he fields or anything else, you've lost 25 runs right off the bat. Of course, if he's a butcher at C and/or a gold glover at 1B, that'll swing the pendulum back, but you're starting out down two and a half wins by playing him at first. He'd better be Keith Hernandez out there if that's going to make any sense for you.

And speaking of that...

Defense Is Important

Mauer, as everybody seems to recognize, is a good catcher. He might not be great, and might not deserve those Gold Gloves he's been winning, but he's more than competent back there.

So that's one thing you're losing by moving him, but more importantly, where are you going to move him to? First base? Third? Left Field? How do you know he can handle those positions, or how well? Quality of defense, at any position, is worth runs, and thus wins. It's not as simple as deciding you're going to move him and then moving him. Most catchers, even great ones and great athletes, are disasters at other positions. There are phenomenal athletes who are terrible defenders. There's just no reason to believe that Mauer could move to even first base and suddenly be an asset out there. (I'm going to assume for the rest of this post that the position is first base, since that's the easiest one to learn, but certainly don't take that to mean I think moving him to 3B or LF makes any more sense.)

So, not only are you sapping up to 25 runs from his value at point zero just by making the move away from catcher, but you're very likely taking him from a position he plays well to a position he will play poorly, or at least considerably less well. And that's bad.

maurhitHis Bat Is Already In the Lineup Every Day!

One justification for moving Mauer (one used on this very site) is that catchers get fatigued and need to rest, and you need Mauer's bat in the lineup every day.

Well, let's not forget that the Twins can use the DH, okay? Mauer's injury caused him to miss the first 22 games of 2009. From there on out, for the team's final 140 games, Mauer played in 138 of them; 109 as a catcher, 28 as DH, one as a pinch hitter. It hurt his Wins Above Replacement total (DHes get dinged under that system even more than 1Bs do), but it was the perfect way to use him. And there's no reason he can't keep getting used that way.

It Will Never Be 2009 Again

Silly statement, but it's important to put Mauer's 2009 to one side for a bit. Mauer's 2009, of course, would be impeccable at any position - he'd be less valuable if he hadn't been a catcher, but he'd still have been awfully valuable.

As amazing as he is, though, it's highly unlikely that Mauer will ever hit .365, lead the league in all three slash categories, or hit 28 home runs again.

What if, for the next five (or ten) years, Mauer settles in to an average of the great work he's done over the last five? Per full season (660 plate appearances), that looks like this:

328/.410/.480, 34 2B, 3 3B, 15 HR, 92 R, 87 RBI, 136 OPS+.

Those are pretty numbers for anybody. Very, very good. But for a catcher, they're out of this world.

I personally believe that Mauer was the AL's true MVP not just last year, but in 2006 and 2008 as well. Catchers just don't hit like that (especially not good catchers). Only one catcher ever, Mike Piazza, has topped a 136 OPS+ for his career. Hall of Fame catcher Mickey Cochrane's best five year stretch was a 138 OPS+, as was Bill Dickey's. Yogi Berra's and Johnny Bench topped out at 136 for a five-year stretch, Gabby Hartnett 135, Carlton Fisk 131. If you're a catcher and can do for ten years what Joe Mauer has done for five, you're a Hall of Famer and one of the four or five best ever to play the position. That's all it takes.

As a first baseman, though? First basemen that have had approximately a 135 career OPS+ include Carlos Delgado (138), Dolph Camilli (136), Boog Powell (134), John Kruk (133), and Mo Vaughn (132). Good players all, but none of them was ever (for more than an isolated year or two) the kind of special superstar that Mauer is right now.

So if you think Mauer is going to hit just as he did in 2009 for the next several years, then Mauer the first baseman is going to be a special, special player (again, not as special as Mauer the catcher, but special). If you recognize that he might come back to earth a bit, then you need to acknowledge that you're taking an inner-circle-Hall-of-Fame talent and turning him into just a really good player.

mauerplate3But What About the Injury/Burnout Risk?

That's the big deal, of course. Catchers get hurt more than most. Catchers wear down over time and retire earlier than most (unless their nickname is "Pudge," apparently).

But with Mauer specifically, we have no idea when (or if) he'll break down or what his particular risk is of a truly damaging injury. If, as time goes by, it becomes clear that catching is taking its toll, or he suffers an injury that puts him at risk if he continues to catch, then by all means, start taking a look at a move.

Failing that, though, I'm willing to take the risk. Aside from all that stuff above, note that for right now, at least, he's not under contract. It's cold, I know, but what do the Twins care if Mauer's knees fail him five or six years down the line, if that's going to be the problem of the Yanks or Red Sox?

So that's what it comes down to. You've got a truly great player, one of the four or five best players in baseball, with some reasonable chance of either devastating injury or sudden decline (which might not even end up being your problem).

If you move him, you lose that elite, potentially legendary player and gain a very good one (assuming, again, that he can even handle the position). I just think that you'd better have a really solid reason to do something like that. He might give them that reason someday, but it hasn't happened yet. - By Bill ParkerThe Daily Something

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    Comments (100)Add Comment
    ...
    written by Henry Chase, March 08, 2010
    Gotta move him. All it takes is one foul tip and you'll be sorry you didn't.
    ...
    written by GaryT, March 08, 2010
    This isn't rotisserie baseball where it matters what position the stats come from. If the guy is gonna hit like Ted Williams you have to do everything you can possibly do to keep him healthy for the longest career possible. Move him.
    ...
    written by Eck665, March 08, 2010
    I agree. I wouldn't let him shut his own arm clock off in the morning, he might hurt his shoulder. For someone this valuable, his health means everything. Gotta move him.
    ...
    written by MarkM, March 08, 2010
    This is a unique case for sure. I don't see how anyone could argue with being cautious and moving him. It's the prudent thing to do.
    ...
    written by Akerman17, March 08, 2010
    The way I look at it is that moving him is like buying insurance. You have insurance on your home, your car, your life, why not have insurance here and move him? How would it hurt?
    ...
    written by NicholasG , March 08, 2010
    You guys are all nuts. Bill has it right. The Twins have such an advantage at the position over the team they are playing. Why would you give that up?
    ...
    written by Eddy66, March 08, 2010
    Yes they do, but as mentioned above, it doesn’t matter what position he is playing when he gets a hit, it still counts as a hit and you still get all the benefits of that hit. If he gets the hit playing another position, it means just as much.
    ...
    written by Alworth, March 08, 2010
    I agree, and if he's playing a position with less injury risk, the odds are that he can be even more productive with less bumps and bruises and he can produce for a longer period of time as well.
    ...
    written by American77, March 08, 2010
    Can you imagine what Mike Piazza' career would have been like if after he left the Dodgers he went to the AL and was a DH? He's probably still be playing and mashing! You have to move the guy.
    ...
    written by Foster, March 08, 2010
    Here's the thing. If you don't move him and he gets hurt, you look like an idiot because you have an obvious way to avoid that; by moving him. If you move him and he doesn't get hurt, it can always be said, "can you imagine him putting up these numbers as a catcher?" And if you move him and he gets hurt at the new position, we'll..... that would be something now wouldn't it..
    ...
    written by Bill@TDS, March 08, 2010
    This isn't rotisserie baseball where it matters what position the stats come from

    No, this is real baseball, where it matters even more what position the stats come from. No matter what, you need to put eight guys on the field, and all eight of them need to bat.

    Say, contrary to fact, that the Twins have a position open on the field that they already know Mauer can competently play, be it 1B, 3B, LF or RF. If you leave Mauer at catcher, you can put Brendan Harris at that other position. Not a great hitter by any means, but he won't kill you either. Or an even better example who always seems to be available basically for free is Ty Wigginton. Decent average, good pop, certainly not automatic outs.

    If you put Mauer in that position, though, suddenly you're left finding another catcher. The real-life Twins would probably have to plug in Drew Butera (who "hit" .211/.268/.292 in AAA last season). Otherwise, freely available talent generally consists of guys like current free agent Michael Barrett (.232/.276/.355 over the last three MLB seasons).

    This is why it's crazy to claim that it doesn't matter what position the hits come from. Every hit Mauer gets as a first baseman or third baseman is worth less to the Twins than it would be if he were still a catcher, because it's forced them to either (a) downgrade from an average-or-better bat like Harris or Wigginton to an automatic out like Butera elsewhere in the lineup, or (b) spend a buttload of money or talent finding a catcher who hits even as well as Harris or Wigginton. Having a catcher who hits like Mauer is immensely valuable--at least as important as it is in fantasy baseball--because it's so incredibly hard to get production out of that position, and so much easier and cheaper to find talent at the other positions.
    ...
    written by Desi8, March 08, 2010
    Bill, if you agreed to let me pay you the same amount of money to have to your kid play on the train tracks or in your own back yard (your choice), why would have your kid play on the train tracks?
    ...
    written by Karen Hathaway, March 08, 2010
    Bill! That's an insane argument! How is that sound logic? If Mauer gets up in the bottom of the 9th and plates a walk-off hit, it doesn't matter which one of the nine positions on the field he was playing or if he was the DH or a pinch hitter. Either way, the Twins win! (Please dispute my facts if you can)
    ...
    written by Bill@TDS, March 08, 2010
    Karen, I have absolutely no problem disputing those "facts." Every plate appearance and every out in a game counts. If Drew Butera is in your lineup in place of Ty Wigginton, Mauer's going to come up with fewer chances to get those walk-off hits (or more generally, your team is going to win fewer games, period).

    I really didn't think that could be disputed: it's much, much better to have Joe Mauer at catcher and a decent-or-better hitter at another position than to have Joe Mauer at that other position and an absolute black hole at catcher. Simple enough, isn't it? What am I missing here?
    ...
    written by Karen Hathaway, March 08, 2010
    Bill, you don't have to have a Mario Mendoza, you could have someone serviceable. You seem to be missing the point that while you will be downgrading the hitting at the catchers position, you will be upgrading it wherever he goes.
    ...
    written by Formont, March 08, 2010
    Actually, on this team 3B would be the perfect place to play him. As that's probably their weakest offensive position.
    ...
    written by Bulls23, March 08, 2010
    He's a great athlete, recruited as a QB. If at his height he the dexterity to catch, he can play 3B. No question.
    ...
    written by Bill@TDS, March 08, 2010
    Not missing that point at all, Karen. It's just, with all due respect, a silly point. It doesn't really matter that you're "upgrading at that position" by moving Mauer there (though if you insist on looking at it that way, it's impossible for you to upgrade by as much as you'll be downgrading at catcher); his bat is in the lineup either way, so that's a lateral move. The important thing is that by moving him, you're seriously downgrading your team.

    It doesn't matter if they have someone serviceable or not. Wherever you place the various points, it all comes down to cost and value. Say something happens to Morneau, so they need a first baseman and have $10 million to spend. For that kind of money, you might be able to nab a big hitter like Derrek Lee (free agent in 2011), or trade for Todd Helton and get the Rockies to pay half his final year's salary. Whatever it is, you can get a very, very good hitter at first base for $10 million. But what will your $10 million get you at catcher? It's hard to say, because nobody wants to give most catchers that much money (and the ones who are good enough almost never become free agents). Victor Martinez might sign for that, but he'll probably get more from the Red Sox, and he's barely a catcher these days, and even he isn't the hitter D-Lee is. Whatever your price point is, whether you're going to go out and get a "serviceable" catcher or not, you'd be better off leaving Mauer at catcher and getting a replacement for whatever position it is you're looking at.
    ...
    written by Mike Cardano, March 08, 2010
    Bill, want a stick to fend them off? smilies/shocked.gif
    ...
    written by Greg08, March 08, 2010
    I'm shocked at the # of people who think he should be moved! Slanch, what ever happened to if it ain't broke don't fix it?
    ...
    written by Hanley H, March 08, 2010
    The Twins can't find a catcher or platoon of catchers that can produce offensively as well as their current group of 3B's? Sure they could. They have perhaps the weekend 3B in all of baseball! Move Mauer to 3B and let others get beat-up behind the plate.
    ...
    written by Paul Centure, March 08, 2010
    There is a reason that they call the catchers equipment the "tools of ignorance." Leaving one of the very best hitters in the game behind the plate is being ignorant (and that's being polite.)
    ...
    written by Bill@TDS, March 08, 2010
    Hanley, defense counts too. There's almost no chance that, as great as an athlete as he may be, Mauer can waltz over to 3B for the first time in his life and pick it as well as Punto, who is one of the best in the game. The other 3B isn't as slick, but that's Brendan Harris, discussed above (so the answer is no, they'd have a really hard time finding a C who could hit like Harris). Even Punto isn't an awful hitter for a catcher--his OBP has been around .340 or above for three of the last four years, which is 24 points better than the average catcher.

    But who they actually have or who they could get isn't really the point. It's just a convenient way of getting to the immutable truth that if you move Mauer, you destroy a huge portion of his value. You just do. You turn a legendary player into a very good but by no means special one -- like I said above, you're turning Yogi Berra or Mickey Cochrane into Boog Powell.
    ...
    written by Wallace Farley, March 08, 2010
    From an objective standpoint it appears that Bill is arguing with logic, facts and reasoning and those in favor of moving Mauer are using "What if" for their reasoning. I'll take logic, facts and reasoning any day. GREAT JOB BILL!
    ...
    written by slanch, March 08, 2010
    @greg08: The issue is that Joe IS already broke. Back injuries, knee issues, these don't get BETTER as time goes on, particularly playing a position as physically grueling as catcher. If the Twins don't move him they're signing him to a 10-year deal planning on a minimum of only getting 8 years of production based on his past missed games. And that's assuming that as he gets older he still heals as fast and recovers quickly. How likely is that?

    @bill: Nick Punto is NOT one of the best 3b in baseball. He's not one of the best 3B in little league baseball. I agree with you that having a monster catcher is valuable, but only if you utilize it properly. For example, if the Twins added a normal power hitting 3b, they would then have traditional power PLUS their awesome catcher, that's a bonus, but the best 3b they've had in YEARS was Corey Koskie and he was no great shake. They don't value the position and don't seek it out, if that's true, why not then move your star there to save the wear and tear and let him do his thing?

    @wallace farley: I agree, there is a large measure of "what if" in my argument, but we're looking at future production, you can extrapolate numbers only to a point, in the end, you'll never be fully accurate. However, I defy you to argue that there is a more punishing position than catcher and that, in moving a player off such a taxing position that he wouldn't inherently be healthier and less physically strained. If the Twins are already accepting 3b as a sunk position, why not allow Mauer to not have his body destroyed?
    ...
    written by Peter Newirth, March 08, 2010
    Best quote of the entire debate = "Nick Punto is NOT one of the best 3b in baseball. He's not one of the best 3B in little league baseball" - Almost peed my pants. Funny stuff.
    ...
    written by Bill@TDS, March 08, 2010
    slanch, if you go back and read in context, I think it's pretty clear that I was saying that Punto is one of the best defensive 3Bs in baseball, not overall. Although I do think Punto is about an average starter who unfairly gets a bad rap. See here: http://www.thedailysomething.c...rhero.html

    Why drag Koskie into this? He WAS one of the best and most underrated 3Bs in baseball when he played for them. But anyway: Punto is fine at 3B; they think Danny Valencia will be ready to take over and be a moderate power-hitting 3B sometime during this season (not sure I agree, but they think so); and no matter what, it would be harder to find a pretty good C than it is to find a pretty good 3B (and hard enough just to find a catcher who can match Punto's total value).
    ...
    written by slanch, March 08, 2010
    @Bill: I'll agree that Punto was a solid FIELDING 3b, 3 years ago, but he's not even their projected starter right now, Harris is, so clearly the Twins, who we can both agree know more about their players than we do, don't think he's good enough for the job, so the point is moot.

    Really, the Twins should add Mike Lowell this year and then next season start Joe in another position, giving him the offseason to learn it.

    Finding a catcher capable of matching the production of either Harris or Punto isn't hard. Freeing up Mauer to do even BETTER is the only reasonable thing to do
    ...
    written by Alex Cash, March 08, 2010
    Nick Punto is no Ron Santo my friends....
    ...
    written by Mike Cardano, March 08, 2010
    And the streak remains intact! At least one Ron Santo reference for eight debates straight. Unbelievable......
    ...
    written by Scott Cage, March 08, 2010
    Bill suppose Mauer gets hurt (bad) playing catcher. How will you then come on and say that your position was sound? That comment about the insurance way up top seemed to make sense. Doesn't it make sense to take the higher probability of risk out of the equation?
    ...
    written by Bill@TDS, March 08, 2010
    I'll agree that Punto was a solid FIELDING 3b, 3 years ago, but he's not even their projected starter right now, Harris is

    Where'd you get THAT idea? I'd say whoever is projecting Harris to be their starter knows a lot less about their players than you or I OR the Twins do. Punto will get most of the time there until Valencia is ready (if ever). And Punto has been a great defensive 2B and SS for the last two seasons, so I don't see any reason to believe he's not just as great at 3B as he was three years ago.

    How have I missed all these Ron Santo mentions? Sad...still can't believe how many people don't see what an obvious slam-dunk HOF that guy is...
    ...
    written by Bill@TDS, March 08, 2010
    Scott, considering that my position already allows for that possibility, I don't see how I have anything else to defend. Considering all the risks and everything else, Mauer is too valuable as a catcher to move him. We already know that something like that might happen. But it might happen at any other position (or DH), too. I'd take an increased risk of injury in return for a much, much more valuable player.
    It's very possible to over-insure, you know. There's an optimum level of insurance above which you're just throwing money away. That's what you're doing if you move Mauer right now.
    ...
    written by slanch, March 08, 2010
    @Bill: Both Yahoo and Rotoworld have Harris as the starting 3b, ESPN has Punto. It's still up in the air according to them. But, as my boy Keith Law said in October, "every at-bat Nick Punto gets is a travesty."
    ...
    written by CeasarT, March 08, 2010
    Santo is NOT a HOFer......
    ...
    written by PaulE, March 08, 2010
    Better to be over insured Bill than to have no insurance at all....
    ...
    written by Seta, March 08, 2010
    Hey Bill, if these guys talk long enough they will actually start to believe what they say to be true. There is absolutely no way this guy should be moved. Don't give up the good fight!
    ...
    written by GregT, March 08, 2010
    Bill, if you live in a flood zone do you not by flood insurance because you were told there hasn't been any floods in the area the past 5 years?

    ...
    written by Bill@TDS, March 08, 2010
    Paul: not necessarily. And anyway, if you're going to insist on this tortured and ill-fitting analogy, the Twins are "insured" by monitoring his situation closely and not riding him too hard at C, DHing him frequently, giving him a whole day off now and then. To move his position entirely is to overinsure to the point where you've seriously devalued the asset you're trying to insure.

    CeasarT- wrong. Completely, ridiculously, inarguably wrong (unless you're just arguing the fact that he's not currently in the Hall of Fame, in which case I'm going to have to agree with you). But off topic anyway.
    ...
    written by Bill@TDS, March 08, 2010
    Wow, we're just full of awful, inapposite analogies today, aren't we? Pretty sure I've handled the insurance one now...
    ...
    written by Michael Carrol, March 08, 2010
    Look, they arm you with protection (catchers equipment) because there is a projectile being fired at you 2 or 3 times a minute.

    On top of that there is someone standing in front of you waving something in front of your face making it more difficult for you to catch the projectile.

    People have literally been killed from being hit by this projectile. The projectile comes in fast, slow it curves, it sinks it bounces etc. making it hard to avoid even if you can't catch it and are trying to avoid it.

    Don't think it's dangerous? The guy that stand in back of you (the umpire) hides behind you even though he's wearing armor as well!

    That's no place for the best player on your team to reside.....
    ...
    written by Mike Cardano, March 08, 2010
    Bill, @ 2pm EST I'm calling out the Army Reserves to come to your aid.

    Not certain I've ever seen a group so one sided that is focused on one particular thing. I can't tell you how much of an amazing job you are doing fighting the phalanx. Great suff!
    ...
    written by slanch, March 08, 2010
    If Mauer stays at catcher he needs at least 30 games off a season as rest, that's 30 games without their best player every season because his position is too taxing on his body, not to mention all the games he plays at less than 100% because he took 3 fouls off his hand the day before. How are the Twins best served by keeping him off the field for a fifth of the season?
    ...
    written by Marc Hipple, March 08, 2010
    Bill, just hear me out. My wife didn't want our 12 year old son playing catcher a few years ago because she felt it was too dangerous. I thought that was silly and tried to explain to her that she wasn't a guy and wouldn't understand.

    About two games into the season he took a foul ball off his bare hand and broke his finger.

    Last season in a High School game he lost a kidney as a result of an unintended collision at home plate. My 18 year old son now has a crooked index finger and only one kidney.

    Think of my son before you so casually brush off the risk of injury to a catcher.

    I won't let his two younger brothers catch and if I had a large monetary investment or dependency on a player that played for a team I owned. He would not be catching.
    ...
    written by Bill@TDS, March 08, 2010
    Heh, thanks Mike.

    Michel Carroll, nobody's saying it's not dangerous, but let's not overstate it, either. How many established Major League catchers have really had serious, career-altering injuries because they were catchers? Ray Fosse comes to mind (but I would've liked to have seen what would've happened to Pete Rose if it had been Mauer he tried to run over). I guess something must've happened to kill Jason Kendall's career at some point, but it's not clear what (or if it was even catching-related; if it were, I think he'd probably not still be catching). Any others? I'm not working that hard, but I can't think of any. Then you've got a loooooooong of guys who had long, productive careers at the position. A catcher has a slightly increased risk of serious injury compared to a position player. You guys are acting like it's the difference between accounting and ice road trucking or something (or, as someone hilariously said above, the difference between playing on the train tracks or playing in your backyard). The difference is the bumps and bruises. He might miss a few more games per season than other players, might even have some years (like 2007) where he misses more than that. But he's a much more valuable player when he IS out there.

    slanch: guess you didn't read my post? The AL has this great invention, the designated hitter. As I wrote above, Mauer played 138 out of the 140 games his team played after he returned from his (apparently non-catching-related) injury last season, between C and DH (and one pinch-hitting appearance). Until he gets traded to the Mets or something, the argument about catcher rest is a total red herring.
    ...
    written by Bill@TDS, March 08, 2010
    Marc, I feel for you and your son. I have a little guy and another on the way, and I really hope neither of them wants to catch (left-handed pitcher seems to be the way to go). Ironically, I really don't think I DID "brush off the risk of injury to a catcher" at the time that you wrote that, but I suppose you could argue I just did above.
    But here's the thing: Mauer isn't your son or mine. He's already made the decision to catch, and has been doing it for the vast majority of his life. Also, every baseball team needs a catcher, and a catcher who can also hit is a very, very valuable thing, much more valuable than a 1B or 3B or LF with similar hitting skills. Maybe it's not the best thing for him personally (I'd argue it most definitely is, since he's a Hall of Famer as a catcher and just a pretty good hitter as a 1B, but that's really neither here nor there), but there's absolutely no question that it's the best thing for his team.
    ...
    written by LarryDR, March 08, 2010
    Hey, you guys have our office all out of sorts. We are split almost 50/50 on this issue. Great Debate!

    P.S. Bill gets two points for successfully arguing his position against the apparent free world!
    ...
    written by Derrek E, March 08, 2010
    Bill, no matter how you argue this, three things are crystal clear.

    1) Catcher is the most injury-prone position on the field and not a smart place to put your best player.
    2) The guy only has to work 162 days per year. The fact that even when healthy he can't do his job ever day because it's too taxing on the body tells you that he shouldn't be there (yes I understand he can DH those days - but then you are sitting one of your best hitters on the team, someone who's sole purpose in the lineup was to hit!).
    3) Ron Santo is not a Hall of Fame player. Good, but not HOF.
    ...
    written by Bill@TDS, March 08, 2010
    Thanks, Larry!
    Derrek E:
    1. Agreed on the first part, but what if he's your best player because he's a catcher? Before 2009, Mauer wasn't clearly a better hitter than Morneau, and it's anybody's guess whether he will be in 2010. He's a better player because he plays catcher. Sort of a catch-22; if you move your best player off of C and he ceases to be your best player...hmm. So then I suppose Johnny Bench should've moved too? Mike Piazza should've gone from the best-hitting C in history to just a pretty-good-hitting 1B? It's craziness. Players should play the hardest/most important position on the diamond that they can play well.

    2. So you're saying 138 out of 140 isn't good enough? In the entire major leagues last year, only Prince Fielder played all 162 games. And no, you're not necessarily sitting one of your best hitters. Generally, when Mauer DH'ed in 2009, Kubel moved to the outfield (where he's awful, but no worse than Delmon Young) and Delmon was the one who rode the pines. There are almost no pure DHes anymore; if he's that important to your lineup, he can probably play in the field one day a week.

    3. This is just laughably, ridiculously false, and it amazes me that people (other than the veterans' committee voters who don't really want to vote anyone in) think this. He's easily -- EASILY!! -- one of the eight greatest players ever to play his position. There are just 10 MLB 3Bs in the Hall already, 13 catchers, and no less than 17 of any other position. Seems to me there's room for another all-time-top-ten third baseman.
    ...
    written by Manuel Ottez, March 08, 2010
    While both of you make great points, it seems to me that there is no clear cut answer. Given that's the case, the prudent thing would be for him to move.
    ...
    written by Kevin Lovel, March 08, 2010
    Bill, why are you in shock that virtually no one with or without HOF a vote agrees with you? At some point you need to consider the possibility that the masses are correct. Santo's not it because he shouldn't be? Just because the messed up and let Andre Dawson in doesn't mean they should let everyone else in that was just a good player too....
    ...
    written by slanch, March 08, 2010
    @Bill: I did read your whole piece, and yes, Mauer DID play 28 games at DH last season, but the Twins signed Jim Thome to be their DH for next season. They also have Kubel and Cuddyer for that role. With 4 outfielders for 3 spots, they'll also be wanting to utilize that spot for those players, meaning DH ABs are going to be harder to find and it still doesn't change the fact that catchers do not, can not, will not play a full season, isn't getting Mauer into 150 games the most important issue? Having him play only 130 is not enough, it means you're screwing yourself when you don't need to.

    It's funny, I was sure I was going to be alone on this one, and that you'd get all the commenter support. It must have been my Endy Chavez reference that won the crowd.
    ...
    written by Bill@TDS, March 08, 2010
    Kevin, because the vast majority of baseball fans, no matter how statistically savvy or well-informed, do agree with me. This is the first place I've ever looked where I've found more than the one or two odd ducks who really don't realize the truth that Santo is obviously a Hall of Famer.

    I wouldn't put Dawson in either, but that has nothing to do with Santo. Santo was a much, much greater player than Dawson is. As I said, he's one of the 8 best players ever to play his position (I'd put him at #5, actually). That's easily good enough to get you in if you're anyone except Ron Santo.
    ...
    written by Sam S, March 08, 2010
    Ok, I’ve had enough. I’ve been refreshing the page all day and reading all the comments. Bill, don’t let the bastards get you down.

    You and I both know the right thing to do is to let him catch period. You could have 10,000 more people say that they should move him, and because they all say it doesn’t make it correct.

    If Mauer was on my team, he’s be my catcher Period.
    ...
    written by Bill@TDS, March 08, 2010
    slanch, do you really think Thome, Kubel or anybody else is going to take PA away from Mauer at this point? That's a bit of a stretch. Thome wasn't brought in to play anything like full-time anyway, and the one who will suffer is Young, who probably deserves to suffer (and occasionally Kubel vs. LHP, who he can't hit).

    If you can play 138 out of 140, there's no reason you can't play 160 out of 162 (also note that .354/.471/.487 in Sept./Oct., so he handled the load quite well). But no, if it came to that, I'd say it's much better to get him into 135 or 140 games as a catcher than 150 at some other position (which we don't even know he can play). A good catcher is just that much more valuable.
    ...
    written by BigALE, March 08, 2010
    Sam, at least when Bill argues his point (wrong as it may be), he uses intelligent facts that are independently correct. Your attempt at justifying the wrong position was just horrible. You said absolutely nothing.
    ...
    written by Christoper Morley, March 08, 2010
    Bill, you make a great argument and are to be commended. Many of the facts you represent cannot be disputed. However it just seems to me that the risk / reward of having him in harm’s way isn’t the most prudent way to approach it.
    While I think the facts may be on your side, my gut tells me the Twins would be better off over the long haul with him elsewhere.
    ...
    written by Bill@TDS, March 08, 2010
    I appreciate the support, Sam. I just kind of figured (in reference to BigALE's snooty comment) that you were saying I'd said it all. smilies/smiley.gif

    SHAMELSS PLUG! If you're actually reading this far down, I really hope you'll come check out my site now and then. I'm about this persistent and fact-filled about everything, and I'd love some more folks to argue with now and then...
    ...
    written by Pepper28, March 08, 2010
    @ Slanch. "Another factor to consider is that the Twins are moving to an out-door stadium this season, 81 games in beautiful downtown Minneapolis. April, May, September, October, those months are going to be absolutely brutal to the players on the field."

    What the hell is the difference where he plays if he's in a clod rain? He'll get just as wet at 3B as he would at C?
    ...
    written by slanch, March 08, 2010
    Sorry Bill, I just completely disagree, 150 games is more valuable than 130. That's 20 possible wins or losses, 80+ PAs, for a team who has twice gone to game 163 the last few years, 20 games is a HUGE deal. Is Thome going to stop Mauer from getting ABs, not completely, but he was signed to hit and not just look hulking on the bench.

    I'd also wager that Delmon puts things a lot more together this year and because of that will make the outfield rotation all the more important, and the use of the DH all the more important too.

    And there is no way that Mauer can catch 120-130 games AND DH the remainder of the games, he simply CANNOT approach 150 playing catcher full time. The toll is takes on the body is simply too much. There are too many day/night games that he'll miss, desperately needing time off to refresh his body, heal up from all the bruises and just rest. That's missed time. Valuable missed time.

    If the team is going to invest hundreds of millions in him, shouldn't he be on the field for them to reap the rewards?
    ...
    written by slanch, March 08, 2010
    @Pepper, my point about the weather is that it is even more dangerous for a catcher. With small foul territory there's more chance of him running into a wall or the stands and hurting himself, tripping over bats in the on-deck circle (a la Jason Varitek) etc.
    It's not the biggest issue, but is another factor to consider.
    ...
    written by Bill@TDS, March 08, 2010
    But, slanch, his impact on the team's wins and losses in those 130 or so games he DOES catch is much greater, per game, than the impact on wins and losses that Mauer the 1B or 3B would have. You can't just say "150 games is more valuable than 130," as though it's apples-to-apples. By moving him, for value purposes, you're making him a different player. Is 130 games of Mauer (at any position) more valuable than 150 of Nick Punto? Definitely. Is 130 of Hanley Ramirez more valuable than 150 of Dustin Pedroia? Starts to get a bit closer. I think, as I essentially argue above, that moving Mauer would basically make him the same as a good-but-not-great 1B...like Morneau (assuming, again, that Mauer can actually play D at his new position). Is 130 of Mauer the catcher better than 150 of Morneau? I'd argue it probably is.

    Again, he played 138 out of 140 consecutive games. You can't possibly look at that and seriously think there's no way he could do the same thing over 162. What's the difference? For five of the six months last year, he played every single day, DHing in day games after night games and any other time he needed a rest. There's no reason he can't handle another month of that.

    If the team is going to invest hundreds of millions of dollars in him, my main concern is giving him the best chance to actually be worth hundreds of millions of dollars. Joe Mauer, the catcher, is. Justin Morneau, no matter how healthy, just isn't.
    ...
    written by slanch, March 08, 2010
    why do i think he can't do it? because in 5 full seasons in the majors Joe Mauer has been injured in nearly each one. 2005: groin and shoulder, 2007: quadriceps, back, ankle, hamstring, 2008: neck, back, 2009: back

    and Mauer's defensive abilities are almost impossible to chart, no one has been able to figure out an accurate way of measuring a catcher's ability on the field. i refuse to believe that 130 is ever better than 150 when Mauer's greatest value is his BAT not his fielding, more is more
    ...
    written by Mike Cardano, March 08, 2010
    Ladies and gents, I’m certain that you can tell by know that both Bill and Slanch not only know their baseball, but they both have very interesting styles and takes on things as well. You would be well served to visit their sites as there is plenty there to enjoy. Both Bill and Slanch will be back from time to time during the year debating various different topics with bloggers that are part of this debate group.

    To see a list of all the debates and all our debaters visit our Debate Home Papge @ http://www.athbaseball.com/201...ebate.html

    You can find Bill Parker and his site, The Daily Something here -> http://thedailysomething.com/

    You can find Slanch and his site, The Slanch Report here -> http://www.slanchreport.com/
    ...
    written by The Common Man, March 08, 2010
    How did I miss this today? And the bad arguments are out in full force!

    Holy crap do I agree with you, Bill. Should the Dodgers or Mets have moved Mike Piazza? Should the Reds have moved Johnny Bench? Should the Yankees have moved Yogi (before Howard was ready to take over)? No, no, and Hell no. A big hitting catcher is a luxury, and a team should press its advantage there for as long as possible. If you're concerned about Mauer's health, yes you should move him away from the plate. But if you're concerned with winning baseball games (or about how Mauer's career will be viewed 20-25 years from now), you leave him behind the dish, where he could very well end up being one of the 4 best catchers of all time.

    Incidentally, no one has mentioned this yet I don't think, the Twins have young C Wilson Ramos in the minors. He's not ready yet, but could be. Reports are that he's an excellent hitter. When and if Ramos is determined to be an acceptable alternative to Mauer, that's when you start moving Joe out from behind the plate (again, like the Yankees did with Berra and Howard).
    Positional Value Still Matters
    written by Andrew K., March 08, 2010
    I get a laugh whenever someone says that it doesn't matter what position an offensive contribution comes from. Of course it does! Joe Mauer at any other position is a completely different player. Mauer provides exceptional offense at a position of key defensive value, and it is ridiculous to consider moving him. Only when health is an immediate concern should the Twins even consider moving Mauer to another position.
    ...
    written by Karky, March 08, 2010
    @ Common Man: Yes, Bench and Piazza should have moved from behind the plate. Oh wait, that's right THEY DID when the teams wised up!
    ...
    written by The Common Man, March 08, 2010
    @ Andrew K

    I agree except to say that I'd argue that Mauer's playing a position of key offensive value in that whatever production you get out of that position is a bonus.
    ...
    written by QuesoS, March 08, 2010
    Bench is a bad example because he was also the best defender at his position (or one of them.) As stated above, if Piazza had become a DH after he left the Dodgers he'd probably still be mashing today.
    ...
    written by The Common Man, March 08, 2010
    @ slanch

    His greatest value is not his bat. It is his bat at the position that he plays. True, his defense is less important than what he does at the plate, but it's his willingness to get behind that plate that makes him a perennial MVP candidate.
    ...
    written by Bill@TDS, March 08, 2010
    A-ha! I called in the cavalry. It's nice to have support. Thanks, TCM and Andrew. smilies/smiley.gif

    slanch, that's kind of a moving target now. In 2009, his (non-catching-related) injury occurred in the off-season, and he caught(/DHed) for five consecutive months without issue. He even caught 17 of the last 19 games (DHing the other two), and of course all three games of their postseason, which began the next day. Injuries happen, of course (to position players too). But there's absolutely no reason he can't do exactly what he did in 2009, only starting in April rather than May.

    As to your comment about "his greatest value being his bat," see Andrew K's comment (and my piece above). A great bat at C is much more valuable than a great bat at 1B, before you give any consideration at all to actual defensive ability. Of course, the scouts and what metrics we do have agree that Mauer is an easily above average (if not quite GG-quality) catcher. But even if he's merely adequate, his bat is much more valuable at catcher.
    ...
    written by Bill@TDS, March 08, 2010
    karky, Bench and Piazza only moved when their knees couldn't handle the position anymore, and only when they were 7-8 years older than Mauer is right now (and the bulk of their value immediately evaporated). I would have no problem at all with the Twins "wis[ing] up" in exactly the same way.
    ...
    written by Mike Cardano, March 08, 2010
    Slanch, gotta step up to the plate here.

    I sense the momentum turning. Bill fended off the rush all morning and early afternoon. He's now stabilized the game and now gone on offense! smilies/grin.gif
    ...
    written by The Common Man, March 08, 2010
    @Karky
    No, they did when they could no longer hack it. The Reds, by the way, played in 4 W.S. and won two with Bench behind the dish. Piazza's teams made 5 postseason appearances, were 733-637 from 1993-2001 (during which time they had only 1 losing record. I'm sure those teams had wished they'd gotten those elite catchers out from behind the plate.

    @Queso
    By most accounts, Mauer is a good defensive catcher. So I'd say that makes it a good example And dude, if Mike Piazza was playing today, he would be 41 years old. I think its safe to say he would not still be mashing. Do better.
    ...
    written by The Common Man, March 08, 2010
    @ slanch
    "I'd also wager that Delmon puts things a lot more together this year."

    Spoken by someone who hasn't had to watch Delmon for the last two years. Delmon couldn't assemble a rectangle out of Legos, let alone a career in baseball.
    ...
    written by The Common Man, March 08, 2010
    Echo......echo.....echo.....echo....
    ...
    written by Paul Fuller, March 08, 2010
    @ Common Man - I'd say that represents a pretty fair assessment of the Delmon Young situation -> http://www.athbaseball.com/201...e-off.html
    ...
    written by The Common Man, March 08, 2010
    @Paul Fuller
    Stop the presses is Delmon Young in the Best Shape Of His Life?!!? (http://tiny.cc/mf6Rq) And he's focused! Did he finally get contact lenses too?

    Look, as a Twins fan, I really hope Young turns it around. But after watching him tomahawk ball after ball into the ground and play LF like he's on roller skates for two years, I'll believe it when I see it.
    ...
    written by Bill@TDS, March 08, 2010
    I have a bit more hope for Delmon than TCM does (though still not much). But at no point should anything Delmon does stop them from DHing Joe Mauer whenever necessary to keep his bat in the lineup. Once a week or so, Jim Thome will sit (which he will often anyway) along with one of Young, Kubel and (rarely, if ever) Cuddyer so Mauer can DH. No biggie.
    ...
    written by Aaron Frank, March 08, 2010
    @ Common Man - Delmon is only 24. He was a highly touted prospect and had a nice rookie season for the Rays. He's career is not lost. He absolutely has the opportunity to get the ship righted. To just be writing him off like that is ignorant. The Twins have given him the LF job, they obviously believe there is something there. I suppose your due diligence on the guy is better than their is. It's one thing to have an opinion but to come on here so narrow minded does not serve you well.
    ...
    written by The Common Man, March 08, 2010
    @ Aaron Frank

    Oh Aaron, would that it were so. I don't like to think ill of my fellow man, and I especially don't like to be thought of as narrow minded. So let's look at Delmon rationally. It's true, Delmon is relatively young. And he does crush a baseball 10-15 times a year.

    However, he has shown absolutely NO progress in his 3+ full seasons. In fact, he's regressed. Last year, he posted his worst batting average and worst on base percentage (which was already pitiful) of his career. He raised his strikeout rate to 22% (career high) and dropped his walk rate to 2.9% (also a career low). And his career high in slugging percentage was artificial due to being increasingly platooned. Finally, the Twins have relatively little faith in him, which is why they brought in Jim Thome to handle the DHing against RHP, allowing Kubel to move to LF.

    And that's not even taking into account Delmon's defense. Among players who spent at least 500 innings in LF last year, Delmon was the second worst according to UZR/150 (http://tiny.cc/I1qnc), behind only the statuesque Adam Dunn.
    ...
    written by slanch, March 08, 2010
    Hey, I'm not saying Delmon is the second coming, I am agreeing with Aaron Frank that he should be better and who knows.

    Ultimately, Mauer's bat is special because it's SPECIAL, not because he's a catcher. He's a great hitter for a catcher but he's also a great hitter for a Twin, and he's a great hitter in pantyhose. I'm not arguing that playing catcher is not more valuable, it obviously is. Besides Victor Martinez there really aren't any other strong hitters at the position in the AL.

    The let-him-stay movement doesn't seem to recognize that he's been missing one fifth of his team's games since he came up for good. If Mauer is going to have a long career if he stays at catcher? I don't see it. Not based on his injury history or the history of the position. Isn't Mauer, and the Twins, best served by having him play longer?

    Hey, if the Twins were willing to invest in an actual major league 3b instead of Harris or Punto, that'd be another story, but they aren't. If the Twins are going to accept that their lineup will always feature a standard "catcher" wasted batter, why not get someone else to shoulder that load instead of Mauer?

    Posada is more valuable to the Yankees because in addition to their power-hitting 1b and 3b they add a strong-hitting catcher. But that's because the Yankees are ADDING power to positions usually otherwise devoid of it. Mauer has power and average but the Twins 3basemen hit like my sister. Either upgrade the position or not. If not, then screw it, take Mauer off the harder position.

    ...
    written by Elaine Simms, March 08, 2010
    @ Slanch: What's your sisters BA, SLG and OBP?
    ...
    written by slanch, March 08, 2010
    .204/280/313
    ...
    written by The Common Man, March 08, 2010
    @Slank
    He missed one-fifth of those games and still managed to be far more valuable than anyone else in the league. If he were Evan Longoria, and played 157 games, he'd still be ridiculously valuable, but he'd not be nearly as valuable as he is at a position where it's hard to find a replacement. It's hardly Mauer's fault the Twins haven't come up with a 3B to satisfy you (irony: defending Delmon Young while ripping Nick Punto, a far better overall player).

    But then again, the Twins invested in a 2B, SS, SP, and DH this offseason.
    What more do you want?

    Take Mauer off the harder position and replace him with who? Bengie Molina? Jason Kendall? Jason Buck? Yorvit Torrealba? Stick with Jose Morales and Drew "What's a Bat?" Butera? It's not worth it when Punto's a strong bounce-back candidate and plays 3B better than anyone in the AL not named Beltre.
    ...
    written by Bill@TDS, March 08, 2010
    How great a hitter is he really, slanch? Obviously he was out of his head in 2009, but from 2006-08, his OPS+es were 144, 118, and 134. As I said above, his five "full" years' combined OPS+, which of course includes 2009, is 136. That's just 18th in the majors (minimum 2000 PA) during that time. Are there 18 great hitters in the MLB? I don't know, maybe. What I do know is that Mauer stands way, way out above most of the guys grouped around him on that list -- guys like Carlos Pena, Jason Giambi, Adrian Gonalez, Derrek Lee and Adam Dunn -- and that's because he did it as a catcher.

    Your argument that they're punting 3B (which they're obviously not) so they should punt C instead makes absolutely no sense, but we've already been there...
    ...
    written by slanch, March 08, 2010
    You saying Nick Punto is a better player is completely ridiculous. You're clearly living in a world different than mine. Anyone who who even uses "better player" in regards to Nick Punto is already wrong.

    Bengie Molina would have actually been a good signing...

    and it's John Buck.

    Punto is a bounce back candidate for what? To be only the 743 worst player on MLB rosters?
    ...
    written by Bill@TDS, March 08, 2010
    I hate to push my own stuff, and here I'm about to push the same piece twice in one thread: please do read this. Punto really isn't the Neifi Perez clone you (and most people) seem to think he is. He's more than serviceable as the 8th-best starting position player on a good team.
    http://www.thedailysomething.c...hero.html

    Egads, Bengie Molina would've been a disaster (even worse than he's going to be for the Giants)...
    ...
    written by Bill@TDS, March 08, 2010
    ...
    written by The Common Man, March 08, 2010
    @Slanch
    Sorry, John Buck. I apologize to you, John, and his mom.

    Nick Punto, beyond a doubt, is a frustrating player. He cannot hit for power, and is entirely dependent on his speed to keep his batting average up. He is patient, but that leads to a lot of strikeouts. And he's prone to long slumps (two of which lasted entire seasons). However, those slumps are usually triggered by injury, and his defense at three positions is stellar. Relative to other LF, Delmon Young is easily one of the 2 or 3 worst in the league. And to call him a butcher in LF is an insult to butchers, who (unlike Delmon) generally work hard and provide me with a delicious product in the end.
    ...
    written by Mike Cardano, March 08, 2010
    @ Bill & Common Man: I read both of your pieces on Nick Punto, both well written, both full of facts.

    No matter how you slice it, Nick Punto comes down to this. Nick Punto is a great utility man to have on your roster who can help a ball club in many ways. In fact he's probably one of the most versatile players on any MLB roster and very valuable because of that. But if he's your full time third baseman you have problems. Third base is a position for an RBI man. If you’re not that, you need to be Chone Figgins. I read about how he was good at taking pitches. Well perhaps if he didn’t take ones that were strikes he would have hit higher than .228!

    He’s got over 2,500 plate appearances and he’s a .248 hitter with no pop. You can make excuses for injuries or whatever you want but 2,500 plate appearances is significant enough data to make a judgment on someone. If you are in the lineup there are no excuses. If you can’t play, let the next guy do it or your just hurting you team. You CAN NOT have a career .248 hitter with no power (no matter how well he fields, even if he was Brooks Robinson, at 3rd base.

    I believe that if the Twins weren’t “Your Team” that you would look at things more objectively.

    As for Mauer all I know is Pizza would have never been a catcher for me, he would have been a DH on an AL club. Walks and singles were doubles and I would hav ebnever put up with that no matter what he did at the plate. Bench, as long as he was a gold glove defender he should have stayed at catcher (Joe Mauer does not have the rest of the Big Red Machine to back him up).

    I don’t know if I could sleep at night signing Mauer for the money he will get knowing that it’s just a matter of time until the day comes that he gets injured. All I know is, when he “goes down” I’ve visited each of your sites first.
    ...
    written by The Common Man, March 08, 2010
    Dude, as long as you're visiting my site, that's fine.

    True, Punto is very valuable as a utility man. But he's not not valuable as a 3B. When he's playing well he provides above average on-base skills and excellent defense (a poor man's Chone Figgins). Third base is not an "RBI position" it's a position where you need to produce and save runs (much like any other position, actually, and let's not start an argument about the worth of RBI as a means of measuring production). The fact is that Punto creates and saves enough runs to make him passable. To quote Howard Sinker (http://tinyurl.com/yfbpflb), "If you have a problem with a solid defensive player with an .340 on-base percentage in 817 at-bats over the last two seasons holding down the No. 9 spot, then I think the problem is more your's than it is Gardy's or Punto's.
    ...
    written by Bill@TDS, March 08, 2010
    Mike, thanks for the comment...
    He’s got over 2,500 plate appearances and he’s a .248 hitter with no pop. You can make excuses for injuries or whatever you want but 2,500 plate appearances is significant enough data to make a judgment on someone.
    Normally I'd agree with you (well, there's actually room for a lot of randomness even in 2500 PA, but you certainly should get a strong idea about the guy). But, when most of the 2500 PA look like this:
    .290 BA, .352 OBP, 524 PA
    .210 BA, .291 OBP, 536 PA
    .284 BA, .344 OBP, 377 PA
    .228 BA, .337 OBP, 440 PA
    ...I think it's fair to wonder which of those two (or three!) distinct guys is the real one. Punto is clearly not a .248/.322/.324 hitter; at no one point in his career has he been particularly close to that guy. He's always either been much better or much worse. And looking at the underlying numbers as I did in that post, I think there's plenty of reason to believe that the true Punto is a lot closer to the much better one. And I certainly have no problem criticizing guys on my team, and wouldn't say that if I didn't believe it.

    I'm sure Piazza is very glad you weren't his manager. He's a very borderline Hall of Famer at first base or DH; at catcher, he's one of the all-time greats. There's a reason for that.
    ...
    written by The Common Man, March 08, 2010
    @Mike Cardano
    As for Mauer all I know is Pizza would have never been a catcher for me, he would have been a DH on an AL club. Walks and singles were doubles and I would hav ebnever put up with that no matter what he did at the plate.

    First, I would play Mike Piazza at catcher and another decent hitter at DH, and I would win. Second, that's mostly because Piazza wasn't nearly as horrible as people thought until the end of his career. Piazza's career CS% was 23%. The league average CS% in the majors last year was 28%. That's one extra SB per 20 attempts. I can live with that. If you can't, be eternally grateful you are not your team's GM.

    I think my willingness to rip Twins management and players is well established, particularly given my disenchantment with Delmon Young that you've read above.
    ...
    written by The Common Man, March 08, 2010
    Relevent quote of the day from Rob Neyer (http://tinyurl.com/yao3nsa):

    "I don't find the "offensive profile of the position" argument particularly compelling. Cal Ripken didn't fit the "offensive profile" of a shortstop, but he was a pretty good one for a long time. Joe Mauer doesn't fit the "offensive profile" of a catcher, but the Twins keep sending him back there."
    ...
    written by Mike Cardano, March 09, 2010
    @ Common Man: "First, I would play Mike Piazza at catcher and another decent hitter at DH, and I would win. Second, that's mostly because Piazza wasn't nearly as horrible as people thought until the end of his career. Piazza's career CS% was 23%. The league average CS% in the majors last year was 28%. That's one extra SB per 20 attempts. I can live with that. If you can't, be eternally grateful you are not your team's GM."

    While I appreciate your statistical analysis, unfortunately the facts you quote on Pizza throwing out base runners (which are correct), are irrelevant. You need to compare what percentage of base runners Piazza threw out compared to his peers, not the catchers playing last year.

    National League catchers threw out potential base stealers 31 percent of the time during Mike’s career while Mike was successful only 24.2 percent of the time.

    That means, of the players that tried to steal against Mike, they were successful 22% more of the time than they were stealing against his peers. That’s awful! And if you watched it in person every day, it was painful.

    Sounding cocky and confident in your argument may work when attempting to convince a kid, but when you are talking to a 43 man who played at the professional level and knows what he’s talking about, that doesn’t work so well unless your facts are relevant.

    As for 3B not having to be an RBI position, it simply comes down to what the rest of your lineup looks like. If you have other mashers on your team, it’s not necessary, I agree, but if you have “defense first guys” at SS, 2B, and CF, your third baseman better be able to hit the crap out of the ball and Punto doesn't.

    @ Bill: My point with Piazza was that if he was a DH or 1sr baseman (although he tried 1st and couldn’t do it at all – it wasn’t as bad as Todd Hundley in LF, but it was bad), he stats would have been markedly better than they were and his consistent high level numbers would have lasted a few more years. He was actually a decent receiver, called a good game and blocked the plate well, but you need a quick release too and he just didn’t have one. If it weren’t for his God Father he would have never even been able to have the opportunity to show his hitting prowess and the reason was his defense. In college, he couldn’t even get on the field in college because his defense was so poor. He’s a Hall of Famer no doubt and one of the very best hitting catchers of all time, but that has nothing to do with his ability to stop base runners and his offensive stats would have been even more impressive if he were a DH.

    And as far as "the real Punto." From someone who has played the game at the professional level I can tell you this. If you cross the white lie and are in the lineup, you need to produce. If you are too hurt to perform then take a seat and let someone healthy have at it.

    There is nothing good that comes to you or your team if you try to play hurt and you suck. You don’t get any kudos for playing professional sports where the sole objective is to win, just for attempting to play hurt, you have to produce.

    You can’t pick his good years and say that’s the real him. His stats are what they are Bill. He proved himself healthy enough to play to management and the medical staff and didn’t do the job. If the reason he was bad was that he kept something from the team and was hurt more then he said, then shame on him as he stunk up the joint and hurt his team.

    He’s a very valuable role / utility player, but he’s not worthy of being a starting 3B on a team that needs offense from that position.
    ...
    written by Bill@TDS, March 09, 2010
    Mike,
    You clearly do know what you're talking about and I mean no offense and only the profoundest respect, but did you really just scold someone for "sounding cocky and confident" and then make a series of arguments that largely boil down to "I played professional baseball, so I'm right and you're wrong"?

    I'm not sure that ever works (Mike Pagliarulo played quite a bit of pro ball, and his writings on baseball are among the most insane ramblings I've ever seen about anything), but here, for maybe the first time in my baseball-analyzing life, I've got the full power of The Establishment on my side. You're essentially arguing that Tommy Lasorda and Bill Russell and Bobby Valentine had no idea what they were doing keeping Piazza at catcher, and that Ron Gardenhire and the Twins staff have no idea what they're doing keeping Mauer at catcher and/or playing Punto on a regular basis. Whose professional experience am I obliged to defer to, yours or those guys'?

    Anyway, the fact is (as Lasorda and Valentine evidently realized), allowing an extra 22% of base stealers just isn't all that big a deal. I can certainly understand that it's hard to watch every day (we had Brian Harper here for several years, and Mauer was having his own problems in '09), but really you're talking about a few runs over the course of a year. A trifle, compared to the boatload of runs you're just giving away by wasting a competent backstop at 1B or DH.

    We don't know whether Piazza's numbers would have been better. It makes some sense, but then, it's hard to see anyone hitting any better than he did from '93-'01, and it's not like he missed many games or showed any signs of wearing down. As a whole, players hit significantly worse when they DH than when they play a position. It makes sense that catching would be different, but we don't know that (in part because big-league managers generally realize that you don't move a guy from C to DH until you absolutely have to, at which point he's getting old and isn't as effective anymore anyway). It would have to be a HUGE difference to justify the runs you're giving away by moving him.

    On Punto, I couldn't agree with you more that it was stupid for Punto to play hurt in 2007. There's nothing I hate more in sports than that culture that says it's good to be "tough" and play through pain even if you're killing your team by doing so (as Punto did, and as Brandon Inge did last year). But my position wasn't by any means a moral judgment in his favor, it was an acknowledgement of the fact that there was clearly something wrong with him that year -- he was just a completely different player than he's ever been before -- and that that year significantly taints his overall numbers in a way that we can't expect to be repeated.

    And there's nothing less true than "his stats are what they are." Nobody's stats -- at least not the raw ones, BA, OBP, HR, RBI, what-have-you -- are what they are. There are park effects, there's good luck and bad luck (TONS of that), and there's a good deal of random fluctuation. When you look at a guy like Punto who in the last four years has had two pretty good ones, one unbelievably awful one and one kind of in-between (but mostly awful) one, it makes no sense at all to dismiss that with "his stats are what they are." That can't possibly be true, because that would mean his stats are about a dozen different (and often directly contradictory) things all at the same time. Isn't it more interesting to take a deeper look and try to figure out what's actually going on?
    ...
    written by Mike Cardano, March 09, 2010
    Bill. I didn't mean to come off that way, as you are correct, because I played doesn’t necessarily make me an authority ON ANYTHING. Perhaps I did in fact misrepresent myself in the way I worded it. Thanks for pointing that out.

    However, I did mean to point out that the stats he used in his argument were not relevant and that in fact using those stats as the basis for his argument, his argument was baseless. Whether I played baseball or not has no bearing on that, I stand corrected. Feel free to strike that from my argument.

    As for Punto, my playing does in fact have relevance because I’ve experienced players (sometimes myself) trying to play through injuries when they shouldn’t have and it is detrimental to the team.

    As for Punto’s stats, when the guy ends his career and you look back, his stats will be what they will be, whatever the conditions or scenarios. Mine were and so where a lot of other minor and major leaguers. I can make a million excuses on how if things broke differently I would have been the center field in Kansas City in the late 80’s and early 90’s instead of Willie Wilson, but that never happened and what was is now what is………
    ...
    written by Bill@TDS, March 09, 2010
    Mike, you're absolutely right that his stats are what they are in the sense that, when we look back at his career, they're a part of who he was (and again, I couldn't agree more with you about playing hurt). Nobody's going to look back and say he was a good player because he did okay in 2006, ignoring all the rest. But that's not what we're doing right now; we're trying to predict what kind of player he will be in 2010. In that context, it absolutely does make sense to pick the numbers apart and look for underlying causes and the like. Looking back at his last four years, I see a lot of reason to believe he will be a lot closer to the player he was in 2006 and 2008 -- which, combined with his excellent defense, makes him a pretty solid starting 3B, at least when he's your ninth-best starter -- than the 2007 version (and to a lesser extent 2009, though I'd live with his above-average OBP and no pop in the #9 slot if I had to).
    ...
    written by Mike Cardano, March 09, 2010
    I think we are closer in thought then you think. More than anything else I think your in trouble though if your 9th place hitter is your 3B if you don't have Jeff Kent at 2B or A-Rod at SS.

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